Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?Kuwait

OpenVol$29KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES7¢
NO93¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOcitrinowicz93%match93¢
Kuwait is perhaps the best example of how, in the Middle East, a common enemy does not necessarily make two countries friends. Among the Gulf states, Kuwait has for years held one of the toughest positions on Israel and normalization with it. There are no diplomatic relations, there are significant restrictions on Israelis, and the Palestinian issue remains a cornerstone of Kuwaiti policy toward Israel. The confrontation with Iran and the growing concern about Iranian policy may create overlapping security interests for Kuwait and Israel. But let's not be confused: A common interest in Iran does not eliminate the dispute over the Palestinians. Anyone who assumes that the Iranian threat will simply cause Kuwait to abandon its traditional positions toward Israel and move toward normalization is putting their money on a deer horn. This is also a broader reminder of the Israeli debate on the Gulf. In Israel, there is sometimes an assumption that the fear of Iran will ultimately be stronger than the Palestinian issue, and therefore Arab countries will move toward Israel almost regardless of Israeli policy in the West Bank and Gaza. Kuwait illustrates well why this assumption is problematic. It is certainly possible to share interests with Iran. It is perhaps even possible to have quiet cooperation in certain areas. But the distance between this and a fundamental change in Kuwait's attitude towards Israel is very great. The Iranian threat can bring interests closer together. It does not erase the Palestinian issue. And anyone who wants to see Israel more deeply integrated into the Gulf in the future needs to understand these two facts simultaneously.

Where does the news lean?

0YES1NO3neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Related markets

See all outcomes for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.