AZ-04 Democratic Primary WinnerKai Newkirk
ResolvedOutcome: No$25Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
In the 4th congressional district, incumbent Dem Rep. Greg Stanton faces a challenge from progressive challenger Kai Newkirk. • • Several Democratic legislators, as well as the Young Democrats of Arizona, recently withdrew their endorsement of Newkirk. • •
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on July 21, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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See all outcomes for AZ-04 Democratic Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.