2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?4th or lower
ResolvedOutcome: No$21Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
July 2026 was the second hottest July on record. In July, the global land surface temperature reached 16.9 degrees, 0.67 degrees above the 1991-2020 July average and 1.47 degrees above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900.
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
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