2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?1st hottest
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$88Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
July 2026 was the second hottest July on record. In July, the global land surface temperature reached 16.9 degrees, 0.67 degrees above the 1991-2020 July average and 1.47 degrees above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900.
Live: #Heatwave In France, July 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded, across all months...
"Some areas of mainland France are suffering greatly from this drought." July 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded
"Some areas of mainland France are suffering greatly from this drought." July 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded.
Where does the news lean?
4YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Related markets
See all outcomes for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.