Japan Core CPI YoY in 20262.5-2.9%
Open$5Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Japan’s headline inflation rate hit its highest level this year, coming in at 1.9% for July as prices continued to climb due to energy prices. • • Core inflation — which strips out prices of fresh food but includes energy — was in line with expectations, coming in at 1.8%. • • Click here for more:
Japan Natl CPI (Y/Y) Jul: 1.9% (est 1.9%; prev 1.6%) • • - Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (Y/Y): 1.8% (est 1.8%; prev 1.6%) • - Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (Y/Y): 1.9% (est 1.9%; prev 1.7%)
NONews93%match99¢-1%
*JAPAN JULY CORE CPI RISES 1.8% Y/Y; EST. +1.8%
NOdbnews93%match99¢-1%
*JAPAN JULY CORE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 1.8% Y/Y; EST. +1.8%
YESReuters97%match6¢-67%
BoJ: Board’s Core CPI Fiscal 2026 Median Forecast at +2.5% vs +2.8% in April
YESReuters94%match10¢-80%
BoJ: Core CPI Excluding Special Factors Up 2.7% in June After 2.7% Rise in May
Consumer price index excluding fresh food in June: +1.6% year-on-year
Japan core inflation rose to 1.6% in June: official data
ALERT: Japan core inflation rose to 1.6% in June from 1.4% in May: official data
NONews94%match90¢+9%
*JAPAN JUNE CORE CPI RISES 1.6% Y/Y; EST. +1.6%
NOdbnews94%match90¢+9%
*JAPAN JUNE CORE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 1.6% Y/Y; EST. +1.6%
Where does the news lean?
7YES12NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
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See all outcomes for Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.