Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

OpenOutcomes6as of

Market pricing makes ≤1.9% the favorite at 54% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

≤1.9%54%
2.0-2.4%41%
3.0-3.4%5%
2.5-2.9%2%
4.0%+0%
3.5-3.9%0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

2.5-2.9%cnbc94%match99¢-1%
Japan’s headline inflation rate hit its highest level this year, coming in at 1.9% for July as prices continued to climb due to energy prices. • • Core inflation — which strips out prices of fresh food but includes energy — was in line with expectations, coming in at 1.8%. • • Click here for more:
2.5-2.9%livesquawk93%match99¢-1%
Japan Natl CPI (Y/Y) Jul: 1.9% (est 1.9%; prev 1.6%) • • - Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (Y/Y): 1.8% (est 1.8%; prev 1.6%) • - Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (Y/Y): 1.9% (est 1.9%; prev 1.7%)
2.5-2.9%News93%match99¢-1%
*JAPAN JULY CORE CPI RISES 1.8% Y/Y; EST. +1.8%
2.5-2.9%dbnews93%match99¢-1%
*JAPAN JULY CORE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 1.8% Y/Y; EST. +1.8%
2.0-2.4%Reuters97%match72¢-18%
BoJ Gov Ueda: Year-on-Year Rate of Increase in CPI Likely to Accelerate to Level ‘Clearly Above’ 2% From Second Half of FY 2026
2.5-2.9%Reuters96%match6¢-67%
BoJ Gov Ueda: Year-on-Year Rate of Increase in CPI Likely to Accelerate to Level ‘Clearly Above’ 2% From Second Half of FY 2026
2.0-2.4%dbws.io93%match27¢+52%
BOJ policy board members’ CPI, GDP forecasts for FY2026-2028
2.5-2.9%dbws.io93%match94¢+4%
BOJ policy board members’ CPI, GDP forecasts for FY2026-2028
3.5-3.9%dbws.io93%match100¢
BOJ policy board members’ CPI, GDP forecasts for FY2026-2028
2.0-2.4%News92%match27¢+52%
Bank of Japan Outlook Report: Price forecast for FY2015 is 2.4% = Previous forecast: 2.3%
2.5-2.9%News92%match94¢+4%
Bank of Japan Outlook Report: Price forecast for FY2015 is 2.4% = Previous forecast: 2.3%
2.5-2.9%News92%match6¢-67%
Bank of Japan Outlook Report: Price forecast for FY2014 is 2.5% = Previously 2.8%
2.5-2.9%Reuters94%match6¢-67%
BoJ: Underlying Inflation Likely to Reach Level Consistent with Price Target Between 2nd Half of Fiscal 2026 and Fiscal 2027
2.5-2.9%Reuters97%match6¢-67%
BoJ: Board’s Core CPI Fiscal 2026 Median Forecast at +2.5% vs +2.8% in April
3.5-3.9%Reuters97%match100¢
BoJ: Board’s Core CPI Fiscal 2026 Median Forecast at +2.5% vs +2.8% in April
2.0-2.4%livesquawk94%match34¢+21%
Japan Tokyo CPI (Y/Y) Jul: 2.0% (est 1.8%; prev 1.7%) • • - Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (Y/Y): 1.9% (est 1.8%; prev 1.6%) • - Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy (Y/Y): 2.0% (est 2.0%; prev 1.9%)
2.5-2.9%livesquawk94%match91¢+8%
Japan Tokyo CPI (Y/Y) Jul: 2.0% (est 1.8%; prev 1.7%) • • - Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (Y/Y): 1.9% (est 1.8%; prev 1.6%) • - Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy (Y/Y): 2.0% (est 2.0%; prev 1.9%)
2.5-2.9%News92%match9¢-78%
The CPI for Tokyo's 23 wards, excluding fresh food, rose 1.9% year-on-year in July (expected increase: 1.7%).
3.5-3.9%News92%match100¢
The CPI for Tokyo's 23 wards, excluding fresh food, rose 1.9% year-on-year in July (expected increase: 1.7%).
2.5-2.9%dbnews92%match9¢-78%
*TOKYO JULY CORE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 1.9% Y/Y; PREV. 1.6%
3.5-3.9%dbws.io91%match100¢
Tokyo July core CPI rises 1.9% yr/yr
2.0-2.4%Reuters93%match66¢-11%
BoJ: Core CPI Excluding Special Factors Up 2.7% in June After 2.7% Rise in May
2.5-2.9%Reuters94%match10¢-80%
BoJ: Core CPI Excluding Special Factors Up 2.7% in June After 2.7% Rise in May
3.0-3.4%cnbc95%match99¢-4%
Japan’s core inflation came in at 1.6% in June, as higher oil prices start to spill over into the wider economy. • • This is the first rise in core inflation since March, and was in line with the 1.6% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters. Core inflation in Japan strips out prices of fresh food. • • Read more here:
2.5-2.9%news.web.nhk93%match90¢+9%
Consumer price index excluding fresh food in June: +1.6% year-on-year
2.5-2.9%afp.com92%match90¢+9%
Japan core inflation rose to 1.6% in June: official data
2.5-2.9%afp.com92%match90¢+9%
ALERT: Japan core inflation rose to 1.6% in June from 1.4% in May: official data
3.5-3.9%livesquawk93%match93¢+8%
Japan Natl CPI (Y/Y) Jun: 1.7% (est 1.7%; prev 1.5%) • - Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (Y/Y): 1.6% (est 1.6%; prev 1.4%) • - Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (Y/Y): 1.7% (est 1.8%; prev 1.8%)
2.5-2.9%News94%match90¢+9%
*JAPAN JUNE CORE CPI RISES 1.6% Y/Y; EST. +1.6%
≤1.9%Reuters94%match41¢+32%
Japan Core-Core CPI Rises at Slowest Pace Since August 2022

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

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