Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Open$194Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOIran Semi-Official ILNA99%match88¢+13%
Switzerland: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs temporarily closed its embassy in Iran, and the ambassador and five employees left Iran by land today.
NOhey_itsmyturn99%match88¢+13%
.@StateDept • "The Embassy of Switzerland’s Foreign Interests Section in Tehran is temporarily closed due to the security situation in Iran until further notice." • • Swiss FM confirms the [temporary] closure, as well. • • #Tehran #Iran
NOIraq State News Agency (INA)99%match88¢+13%
The Swiss government: The Foreign Ministry has temporarily closed the embassy in Iran, and the ambassador and five staff members left by land today.
NOi24news_en99%match88¢+13%
Spain permanently withdraws its ambassador to Israel over opposition to US-Israeli strikes in Iran • • Read more on i24NEWS:
NONews98%match88¢+13%
Australia expects Iran war to intensify, shuts some Middle East embassies
NONews98%match88¢+13%
Iran fired cluster bombs toward Israel, Israeli police say
NONews98%match88¢+13%
Israel announces 'wave of strikes' on Iran
NOIran Semi-Official SNN98%match88¢+13%
FWD from SNN International: #LiveCoverage|Irvani: The assassination of Iranian diplomats in Beirut showed that once again all international laws have been violated and the UN Charter has been called into question Permanent Representative of Iran to the United Nations: On March 8, the Zionist regime carried out an attack on a hotel in Beirut, during which four of our diplomats were martyred. After announcing the Israeli regime's threat, these diplomats went to a hotel in Beirut and were martyred there. It is regrettable that the Security Council continues to remain silent, turning a blind eye, and not fulfilling its responsibilities. The members of the Security Council are switching places between the killer and the victim. The international community must take action and stop these clear aggressions against Iran. This war has been imposed on us and is targeting the peace and stability of the region. For the latest news, visit @snninternational
NONews98%match89¢+11%
Two days after the killing of four senior officials of the IRGC's Quds Force following the Israeli army's attack on the Ramada Hotel building in central Beirut, Amir Saeed Iravani, the Islamic Republic's representative to the United Nations, confirmed on Tuesday, March 9, that these individuals had been killed and called them "Iranian diplomats."
NOiranintl_en98%match89¢+11%
#BREAKING Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations said four Iranian diplomats were killed in an Israeli attack on a hotel in the Lebanese capital Beirut, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News reported citing the envoy's letter to the UN secretary general. • • In a letter addressed to Antonio Guterres and the president of the Security Council, Iran’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, said the diplomats were killed in what he called a deliberate Israeli strike. • • According to the Fars report, the attack took place in the early hours of Sunday and targeted the Ramada Hotel in Beirut. • • The four diplomats identified as killed were Majid Hassani Kandsar, a second secretary; Alireza Bi-Azar, a third secretary; Hossein Ahmadlou, an attaché; and Ahmad Rasouli, the chargé d’affaires. •
Where does the news lean?
0YES10NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.