Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

OpenVol$605KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES10¢
NO90¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESRussian Media97%match10¢
Iran's parliament will urgently consider a proposal to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali Nikzad announced. According to him, the initiative is currently being studied, including in terms of its international implications. The document will be submitted to a plenary session with a note of utmost importance; members of parliament must consider it that same day, Fars reports. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
YESRussian Media97%match10¢
Iran's parliament will urgently consider a proposal to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali Nikzad announced. According to him, the initiative is currently being studied, including in terms of its international implications. The document will be submitted to a plenary session with a note of utmost importance; members of parliament must consider it that same day, Fars reports. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
YESfarsnews_agency93%match10¢
Deputy Speaker of Parliament: Parliament is reviewing the three-point plan to withdraw from the NPT Nikzad: The three-point plan to withdraw from the NPT is being reviewed and will be considered the same day after it is announced; of course, the Parliament will also review its international dimensions.
NOvesti.ru94%match87¢+3%
Iran has stated that it has not withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
NOIran Semi-Official ILNA97%match87¢+3%
Major General Rezaei: Iran has not yet decided to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council told Al Jazeera: Iran has not yet made a decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the matter depends on Washington's behavior. @ilnair
NOiranintlbrk94%match87¢+3%
Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic: We have not yet made a decision to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and this issue depends on Washington's behavior.
NOIran Semi-Official SNN94%match87¢+3%
Major General Rezaei: We have not made a decision to withdraw from the NPT / We want an end to the Saudi-Yemen war Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council: We have not yet made a decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and this depends on Washington's behavior. We continue to adhere to the fatwa of the late leader and have not changed our nuclear doctrine, but we do not know what will happen in the future. We want an end to the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and I believe that the Yemenis also want an agreement with Saudi Arabia. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv [in reply to: Major General Rezaei: In the event of an enemy attack, we will target Washington's bases and interests in the region Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council: We are serious about defending ourselves and in the event of an attack, we will target American bases and Washington's interests in the region with greater force. Consultations with Qatari and Pakistani mediators continue and we have informed them of our conditions for negotiations. Our conditions include an end to the war on all fronts, the release of Iran's frozen assets, and an end to the naval blockade. We are in contact with the Qatari mediator who conveyed our conditions to Washington with the aim of stopping the war, and we are waiting for President Trump's response. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv]
NOAl Jazeera Mubasher92%match87¢+3%
The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council told Al Jazeera: We have not yet made a decision to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the matter depends on Washington's behavior.
NOAl Jazeera92%match87¢+3%
The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council told Al Jazeera: We have not yet made a decision to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the matter depends on Washington's behavior.
NOalmayadeenlive91%match87¢+3%
Iran: Kamalvandi: Iran was one of the first members of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and has always remained committed to its obligations.
NOIran Foreign Ministry94%match88¢+2%
Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Tuesday, September 10, 1405, Answer to Question 11: This is a real question. In these two years, I think I have been asked this question several times. That both at the elite level and ordinary people, their analyses are often more accurate than those of me, is a matter of debate as to how you can remain a member of an international document and at the same time be deprived of all its benefits; worse, that you are punished for adhering to your obligations and commit such crimes. This question should be answered by those who ridiculed the non-proliferation regime. The United States, as a nuclear weapons state, as one of the trustee states of this document, as well as its supporters who constantly talk about preserving the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the non-proliferation regime, should be truly held accountable; Because this question is a serious one at the international level, how the non-proliferation regime was undermined by the US and the Zionist regime in our region and beyond. But in terms of the official position, it is very clear that as long as we are a party to this document, we consider ourselves committed to the duties contained in this document. Our position regarding the principle of nuclear weapons has been consistent and principled. Nuclear weapons, as the most destructive weapon of mass destruction, are in our opinion both contrary to our religious teachings and anti-civilizational and anti-human weapons. @MFAIran [in reply to: Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Tuesday, September 10, 1405, Question 11: In recent weeks, reports have again been published regarding the possibility of Iran withdrawing from the NPT. Now the question arises: what is the point of being a member of a document that is only a commitment and obligation and does not allow us to use its benefits? At the same time, we are constantly threatened by nuclear weapons holders. Are these discussions really relevant? @MFAIran]
NOiranintlbrk92%match84¢+7%
Baqaei said the Islamic Republic remains a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, adding: "We both recognize our obligations in this regard and express our expectations seriously."
YESfaytuksnetwork99%match47¢-79%
Iran’s parliament and other bodies are urgently reviewing a potential withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Tasnim News reported, citing a growing consensus it is no longer justified.
YEShazem_kallass99%match46¢-78%
Iranian Tasnim News Agency: Withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty does not mean a move towards acquiring nuclear weapons, but rather…
YESiranintl_en99%match34¢-71%
Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said on Saturday that some institutions in the Islamic Republic, including parliament, were urgently reviewing a potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). • • According to the report, a consensus was forming that there was no justification for Iran to remain in the treaty.
YESiranintlbrk99%match34¢-71%
The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, wrote that some institutions in the Islamic Republic, including the Islamic Consultative Assembly, are urgently considering the issue of withdrawing from the NPT, and the conclusion is becoming certain that there is no reason to remain in this treaty.
YESft.com99%match30¢-67%
Live: Iran weighs exit from nuclear non-proliferation treaty

Where does the news lean?

80YES24NO57neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.