Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Open$395Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES9¢
NO91¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Baqaei said the Islamic Republic remains a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, adding: "We both recognize our obligations in this regard and express our expectations seriously."
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: As long as we are a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, we have the right to benefit from nuclear energy.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated the country’s right to nuclear energy as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), while dismissing Western demands as "unfair" and part of an "unjust campaign" against Tehran.
Iran’s parliament and other bodies are urgently reviewing a potential withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Tasnim News reported, citing a growing consensus it is no longer justified.
Iranian Tasnim News Agency: Withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty does not mean a move towards acquiring nuclear weapons, but rather…
Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said on Saturday that some institutions in the Islamic Republic, including parliament, were urgently reviewing a potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). • • According to the report, a consensus was forming that there was no justification for Iran to remain in the treaty.
The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, wrote that some institutions in the Islamic Republic, including the Islamic Consultative Assembly, are urgently considering the issue of withdrawing from the NPT, and the conclusion is becoming certain that there is no reason to remain in this treaty.
Live: Iran weighs exit from nuclear non-proliferation treaty
Where does the news lean?
37YES7NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.