India strike on PakistanDecember 31, 2026
Open$327Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 16% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES16¢
NO85¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
One year since Pakistan responded to India’s reckless unilateral military aggression, one year since Pakistan delivered that decisive punch under #BunyanUmMarsoos to India that lead to the Indian side crawling to the US side to seek a ceasefire, one year since Pakistan challenged the false notion of India being the net security provider and instead showed the world that if anything, it is India that is the the reason for instability in the region.
Pakistan airfoce pilot SQN LDR Ali of the J-10C describes his feelings during May 2025 war with India..
Throw Back — May 2025 • • Marka-e-Haq (MeH) • • Operation #BunyanUmMarsoos • • Famous Words of Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed • • The Pakistan Air Force sends Indian Rafale Godzilla Formation back to the ground! • • #PAF #Pakistan #ISPR
Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar: • Indian aggression against Pakistan last year was a provocative, irresponsible and reckless act that pushed the region to the brink of disaster. • India followed a calculated pattern of escalation, blaming Pakistan after the 22 April 2025 Pahalgam incident without credible evidence, despite Pakistan’s offer of a transparent and independent investigation. • India then chose belligerence over restraint, targeting civilian areas on the night of 6 and 7 May under a false pretext, resulting in the martyrdom of innocent men, women and children. • The escalation endangered commercial air traffic, placed millions of lives at risk, and was driven by India’s attempt to divert attention from IIOJK and domestic political pressures.
Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar: • • Indian aggression against Pakistan last year was a provocative, irresponsible and reckless act that pushed the region to the brink of disaster. • He said India followed a calculated pattern of escalation, blaming Pakistan after the 22 April 2025 Pahalgam incident without credible evidence, despite Pakistan’s offer of a transparent and independent investigation. • Dar said India then chose belligerence over restraint, targeting civilian areas on the night of 6 and 7 May under a false pretext, resulting in the martyrdom of innocent men, women and children. • He added that the escalation endangered commercial air traffic, placed millions of lives at risk, and was driven by India’s attempt to divert attention from IIOJK and domestic political pressures.
STRIKE.
NOAl Jazeera Breaking News99%match73¢+15%
BREAKING: Pakistan says three cities targeted by drone attacks LIVE updates:
Where does the news lean?
2YES6NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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