India strike on Pakistan
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Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 16% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
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One year since Pakistan responded to India’s reckless unilateral military aggression, one year since Pakistan delivered that decisive punch under #BunyanUmMarsoos to India that lead to the Indian side crawling to the US side to seek a ceasefire, one year since Pakistan challenged the false notion of India being the net security provider and instead showed the world that if anything, it is India that is the the reason for instability in the region.
Pakistan airfoce pilot SQN LDR Ali of the J-10C describes his feelings during May 2025 war with India..
Throw Back — May 2025 • • Marka-e-Haq (MeH) • • Operation #BunyanUmMarsoos • • Famous Words of Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed • • The Pakistan Air Force sends Indian Rafale Godzilla Formation back to the ground! • • #PAF #Pakistan #ISPR
Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar: • Indian aggression against Pakistan last year was a provocative, irresponsible and reckless act that pushed the region to the brink of disaster. • India followed a calculated pattern of escalation, blaming Pakistan after the 22 April 2025 Pahalgam incident without credible evidence, despite Pakistan’s offer of a transparent and independent investigation. • India then chose belligerence over restraint, targeting civilian areas on the night of 6 and 7 May under a false pretext, resulting in the martyrdom of innocent men, women and children. • The escalation endangered commercial air traffic, placed millions of lives at risk, and was driven by India’s attempt to divert attention from IIOJK and domestic political pressures.
Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar: • • Indian aggression against Pakistan last year was a provocative, irresponsible and reckless act that pushed the region to the brink of disaster. • He said India followed a calculated pattern of escalation, blaming Pakistan after the 22 April 2025 Pahalgam incident without credible evidence, despite Pakistan’s offer of a transparent and independent investigation. • Dar said India then chose belligerence over restraint, targeting civilian areas on the night of 6 and 7 May under a false pretext, resulting in the martyrdom of innocent men, women and children. • He added that the escalation endangered commercial air traffic, placed millions of lives at risk, and was driven by India’s attempt to divert attention from IIOJK and domestic political pressures.
STRIKE.
STRIKE.
Pakistan has accused Afghanistan’s Taliban of serving as a “proxy” for India, amid hostilities between Islamabad and Kabul. Has India’s influence in Afghanistan grown under the Taliban and what is India’s endgame with Afghanistan? Read here:
Pakistan has accused Afghanistan’s Taliban of serving as a “proxy” for India, amid hostilities between Islamabad and Kabul. Has India’s influence in Afghanistan grown under the Taliban and what is India’s endgame with Afghanistan? Read here:
BREAKING: Pakistan says three cities targeted by drone attacks LIVE updates:
BREAKING: Pakistan says three cities targeted by drone attacks LIVE updates:
India rejects any allegations of involvement in Pakistan bombing, foreign ministry says
India rejects any allegations of involvement in Pakistan bombing, foreign ministry says
INDIA FOREIGN MINISTRY REJECTS ANY ALLEGATIONS OF INVOLVEMENT IN PAKISTAN BOMBING INCIDENT- STATEMENT
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.