Brazil Presidential Election First Round WinnerFlavio Bolsonaro
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$2.6Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro pulls off a surprise victory, overtaking Lula in the first round
Brazil: Conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of Jair Bolsonaro, surprises by overtaking Lula in the first round of the presidential election
Brazil goes to runoff in presidential election; right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro leads.
YESReuters94%match100¢
Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula Headed to Runoff in Brazil Presidential Election -- Electoral Authority
YESReuters94%match99¢+1%
Flavio Bolsonaro Has 48.47% of the Vote in Brazil Presidential Election, Lula 43.49% with 84.96% of Ballots Counted
Bolsonaro remains in the lead in Brazil's presidential election With 47.26% of the votes counted in Brazil's presidential election, Flavio Bolsonaro is leading with 50.20% of the votes, while Lula da Silva has won 41.63%. @TasnimNews [in reply to: Preliminary results of Brazil's election With 17.2% of the votes counted, Flavio Bolsonaro has won 51.2% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won 40.7%. @TasnimNews]
YESReuters94%match97¢+3%
Flavio Bolsonaro Has 49.58% of the Vote in Brazil Presidential Election, Lula 42.25% with 64.81% of Ballots Counted
FLAVIO BOLSONARO, LULA HEADED TO RUNOFF IN BRAZIL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
Presidential election in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro far ahead of Lula in the first round
Lula maintains lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows
Revelations that Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering rocked his right-wing campaign Friday, weeks before elections.
Where does the news lean?
47YES34NO26neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.