Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? Odds jumped to 90% on Oct 4, 2026
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Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 36.5¢ to 89.5¢ (+53 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Oct 4, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 45.5¢ → 92.5¢+47 ptsafter a signal from News
- 49.5¢ → 94.5¢+45 ptsafter a signal from News
- 72.5¢ → 93.8¢+21.3 ptsafter a signal from Al Araby
- 79.5¢ → 94.7¢+15.2 ptsafter a signal from Al Araby
- 85.5¢ → 96.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from Al Araby
- 85.5¢ → 96.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
- 85.5¢ → 96.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from Al Araby
- 86.5¢ → 96.3¢+9.8 ptsafter a signal from dbws.io
- 88.5¢ → 98¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 99% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.