How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?<220
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$10Kas of
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This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
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10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Live: The Houthis’ threat on July 20 to blockade Saudi oil shipments in the Red Sea has caused a big drop in the number of ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical waterway for cargo heading to China and other countries in Asia.
Windward MIOC analysis: Bab el-Mandeb crossings fell 22% in six days. • • After Houthi forces threatened Saudi-linked vessels on 20 July, daily transits dropped from a 47.8 average to 37.2. Six days on, they haven't recovered. • • Pre-threat: 52, 56, 39, 56, 40, 44 crossings/day • Post-threat: 35, 40, 43, 34, 36, 35 crossings/day • • The baseline dropped and held for a week. No rebound. • • Track Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea transits daily:
Shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has plummeted to its lowest levels following Houthi attacks. Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has seen a sharp decline in recent months. On Sunday, only 11 cargo ships transited the strait. Last week, after Yemen announced a naval blockade of Saudi ports, the number of ships dropped to 30 per day. Following the Houthi attack on two Saudi tankers, most companies have rerouted their vessels or postponed their Red Sea transits.
Reuters: Shipping traffic in the Red Sea continued to decline following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities in the Red Sea. Only 11 cargo ships transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Sunday.
Shipping in the Red Sea slowed after attacks in Yemen, according to Saudi data. Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait slowed over the weekend after Yemenis attacked Saudi oil tankers and threatened further attacks on ships linked to Saudi ports, according to Saudi shipping data reviewed by Reuters. Meanwhile, CNN data showed a sharp drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to fewer than 10 commercial vessels over the weekend (compared to more than 100 ships per day under normal circumstances), as shipping companies reassessed security risks in the region. #AlMayadeen
Yemeni blockade of Bab al-Mandab Reuters: Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab strait has fallen to its lowest level in months, with only 11 cargo ships passing through the waterway. The decline comes after Yemen's naval blockade of Saudi ports and heightened concerns among shipping companies.
Yemeni blockade of Bab al-Mandab The latest maritime traffic tracking data published by Reuters shows that ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has reached its lowest level in recent months, with only 11 cargo ships passing through the waterway on Sunday. Ship traffic in Bab al-Mandab reached about 30 ships last week after Yemen announced a naval blockade of Saudi ports; a trend that has now reached its lowest level in recent months with only 11 ships per day recorded. According to Reuters, concerns among shipping industry activists following the Yemeni attack on two Saudi oil tankers have caused most shipping companies to change their routes or postpone crossing the Red Sea. @Farsna - Link [in reply to: Yemen targets 3 Saudi oil tankers Al-Mayadeen: Yemeni armed forces have targeted 3 Saudi oil tankers in the past 48 hours. The number of Saudi ships that have been returned since last Monday has reached 16 ships. The source also reported that no Saudi oil tanker has passed through Bab al-Mandab since the beginning of the blockade on Yemen.
@Farsna]
Only 11 cargo ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Sunday, the lowest number in months, Reuters reported, citing data from Kepler. The drop came after Yemen's Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia's oil facilities on the Red Sea coast. @ilnair
Reuters reported that only 11 cargo ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Sunday, the lowest number in months, citing data from Kepler. The decline came after Yemen's Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia's oil facilities on the Red Sea coast.
Reuters: Eleven cargo ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Sunday, the lowest number in months, data shows
Where does the news lean?
13YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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