How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?230-239
ResolvedOutcome: No$1Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has plummeted to its lowest levels following Houthi attacks. Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has seen a sharp decline in recent months. On Sunday, only 11 cargo ships transited the strait. Last week, after Yemen announced a naval blockade of Saudi ports, the number of ships dropped to 30 per day. Following the Houthi attack on two Saudi tankers, most companies have rerouted their vessels or postponed their Red Sea transits.
Yemeni blockade of Bab al-Mandab Reuters: Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab strait has fallen to its lowest level in months, with only 11 cargo ships passing through the waterway. The decline comes after Yemen's naval blockade of Saudi ports and heightened concerns among shipping companies.
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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