How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?<180
ResolvedOutcome: No$7Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Urgent Lloyd's List: - Some ship owners and operators are avoiding calling at Saudi ports on the Red Sea - Insurance coverage remains available for vessels not linked to Saudi Arabia - Operations at Saudi ports such as Yanbu are operating covertly, disabling AID before leaving the area via the Suez Canal - Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb shows signs of stabilizing despite the naval blockade on Saudi shipping - 223 transits of vessels with AID operational were recorded in Bab el-Mandeb between August 10 and 16
Lloyd's List: Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb shows signs of stabilization despite the naval blockade on Saudi shipping 223 transits recorded for vessels with AID in operation in Bab el-Mandeb between 10 and 16 August
Live: Hormuz transits down as Bab al-Mandeb sees increase, says data firm
According to Marine Traffic, maritime traffic in the two vital passages had different trends last week. According to the report, the number of ship crossings through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 19.5 percent, from 118 to 95, and daily traffic also decreased from a peak of 19 on August 10 to only three on August 15. Marine Traffic announced that of the total traffic, 51 were made through the one-way Iranian route, while the route of 44 was unknown, and no crossings were recorded through the Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic separation scheme or the Oman route. In contrast, the number of ship crossings through Bab al-Mandeb increased by 6.7 percent, from 238 to 254. Of these, 150 ships entered the Red Sea and 104 left. Marine Traffic highlighted that silent passages, during which ship tracking systems are inactive, had decreased sharply, from 40 to 16. However, compliance challenges and security risks continued, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet passages recorded during the week.
MarineTraffic: • • Maritime traffic in recent days has split into two routes at two key critical points. • • Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 19.5%, falling to 95 crossings from 118 previously. Daily crossings also dropped from a peak of 19 on August 11 to just three on August 16. • • Of the total crossings, 51 used the Iranian route, while 44 were on unidentified routes. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait increased by 6.7%, reaching 254 crossings.
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient • • Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 44 were Route Undetermined. No Hormuz TSS or Omani-route crossings were recorded. • Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased 6.7% to 254 from 238, with 150 vessels entering the Red Sea and 104 exiting. Dark transits fell sharply to 16 from 40, although compliance and security exposure persisted, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet crossings recorded during the week.
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient • • Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 44 were Route Undetermined. No Hormuz TSS or Omani-route crossings were recorded. • Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased 6.7% to 254 from 238, with 150 vessels entering the Red Sea and 104 exiting. Dark transits fell sharply to 16 from 40, although compliance and security exposure persisted, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet crossings recorded during the week.
Where does the news lean?
0YES7NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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