Core CPI MoM - August 20260.3%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$13Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Bond traders are anticipating two interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August, and 3.4% year-over-year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-over-month, while the core annual rate was 2.4%. Swap contracts are pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike next week, compared to 70% previously. #Arabic_Business
LATEST: U.S. core CPI rises 0.3% MoM in August, above the 0.2% forecast, putting a Fed rate hike next week at near-certainty as the 2-year Treasury yield jumps to 4.61% and $BTC dips to $77,600.
U.S. August Consumer Price Index Rises 3.4%... Core Inflation Up 0.3% Month-on-Month
A rise in the core consumer price index increases pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August (seasonally adjusted) during the month, bringing the annual increase rate to 3.4%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, recorded a monthly increase of 0.3%, while the core annual rate was 2.4%. Swap contracts are pricing in a 90% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points next week, compared to 70% previously. #Arabic_Business
[Breaking] U.S. August Consumer Price Index Rises 3.4%... Core Inflation Exceeds Month-on-Month Expectations
[2nd Report] U.S. August Core Consumer Price Index Rises 0.3% Month-on-Month… Exceeds Expectations
US core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, exceeding expectations; 90% chance of Fed rate hike next week.
CPI Core 0.3% and... • • *TRADERS PRICE IN ABOUT 90% CHANCE OF FED RATE HIKE NEXT WEEK
YESNews94%match100¢
US core CPI rose 0.3% in August compared to the previous month (Reuters forecast a 0.2% rise).
YESNews93%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.2%
Live: The numbers are out! U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August and were up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. “Core” prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, were up 0.3 percent month-over-month and 2.4 percent year-over-year.
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.2%
US CPI (Aug.) • • Core • M/M: 0.3% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.2%) • Y/Y: 2.4% (exp. 2.4%, prev. 2.5%) • • Headline • M/M: 0.4% (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.1%) • Y/Y: 3.4% (exp. 3.4%, prev. 3.4%)
CPI 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.4% • CPI Core 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.2% • • CPI 3.4% YoY, Exp. 3.4% • CPI Core 2.4% YoY, Exp. 2.4%
YESdbnews93%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.2%
Where does the news lean?
14YES1NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Core CPI MoM - August 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.