Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
ResolvedOutcome: No$2.4Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Taiwan: "Chinese Military Accelerates Preparations for Invasion of Taiwan... Expected to Be Completed Between 2030 and 2035"
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.