Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

OpenVol$429KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES9¢
NO92¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOdbws.io99%match84¢+8%
China offers incentives to Taiwan following opposition leader’s visit
NOcnbc.com99%match84¢+8%
China's Xi invokes 'threat' of Taiwan independence in first cross-strait opposition talks in a decade

Where does the news lean?

1YES2NO2neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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