Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Open$3.5Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES10¢
NO91¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Taiwan: "Chinese Military Accelerates Preparations for Invasion of Taiwan... Expected to Be Completed Between 2030 and 2035"
China not planning to invade Taiwan in 2027, US says
China Isn't Planning to Invade Taiwan in 2027, U.S. Concludes -- WSJ
U.S. assesses China not planning to invade Taiwan in 2027
China will not invade Taiwan in 2027, says US
"China does not plan to invade Taiwan in 2027," US intelligence agency annual report.
Big news- US assesses China is not currently planning to invade Taiwan in 2027
US assesses China is not currently planning to invade Taiwan in 2027
Where does the news lean?
0YES8NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.