Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?<8%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$66Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Germany: With less than 5% of the vote, Merz's CDU will not be represented in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania parliament, a historic first
Merz's CDU fails to overcome 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections for the first time - media The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of the current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz failed to overcome the 5% threshold in the elections in the federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for the first time in history, while in Berlin the party came in second with 18.8% of the vote. "According to preliminary official results, the winner of the elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is the Alternative for Germany with 38.2% of the vote. It is followed by the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), which received 35.5% of the vote, the Left (6.5%) and the Greens (5.7%). The party of the current Chancellor - the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - for the first time in history did not make it to the state parliament: it failed to overcome the 5 percent barrier," Bild reports.
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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), failed to make it to the state parliament for the first time in history. As voting data shows, the CDU suffered a record drop in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - the party received only 4.9% of the vote subscribe
State elections: CDU politicians in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania fear failing to clear the five percent hurdle
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election: CDU politicians fear failing to clear the five percent hurdle
Where does the news lean?
7YES1NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
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