Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?14%+
ResolvedOutcome: No$5Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The CDU's failure in the state elections was a "dramatic and unprecedented result," said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. "We failed to overcome the five percent threshold, and an entire faction is losing representation in the state parliament. This is a heavy blow, the consequences of which we will feel for a long time. We will have a long time to discuss this situation," he said during a press conference. Merz stated that the CDU lacked "only a thousand votes" to enter the state parliament. He also added that federal policy and himself played a significant role in the elections. On September 20, the Alternative for Germany won the elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 38.2% of the vote, significantly ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU. The Christian Democratic Union received 4.9% of the vote and, for the first time in its history, failed to enter the state parliament. More IZ RU news in MAX
Merz's CDU fails to overcome 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections for the first time - media The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of the current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz failed to overcome the 5% threshold in the elections in the federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for the first time in history, while in Berlin the party came in second with 18.8% of the vote. "According to preliminary official results, the winner of the elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is the Alternative for Germany with 38.2% of the vote. It is followed by the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), which received 35.5% of the vote, the Left (6.5%) and the Greens (5.7%). The party of the current Chancellor - the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - for the first time in history did not make it to the state parliament: it failed to overcome the 5 percent barrier," Bild reports.
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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), failed to make it to the state parliament for the first time in history. As voting data shows, the CDU suffered a record drop in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - the party received only 4.9% of the vote subscribe
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
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