When will Apple release a foldable iPhone?December 31

OpenVol$734KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 99% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES99¢
NO1¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

21 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESmoney.udn.com94%match99¢
Apple's first foldable iPhone Duo has seen its supply chain increase orders by 30%, and pre-orders on JD.com have exceeded 2 million even before its official release.
YESetnews.com92%match99¢
Apple iPhone 18 Pro launches in Korea… Foldable on the 23rd of next month
YESWalter Bloomberg94%match100¢-1%
APPLE’S $1,999 FOLDABLE FACES DEMAND TEST • • Apple’s new iPhone Duo starts at $1,999, but analysts question whether its appeal can extend beyond wealthy early adopters. • • Counterpoint still expects Apple to sell nearly 6 million units by year-end, potentially capturing 25% of the global foldable market on pent-up demand and brand strength alone.
YESqq_timmy92%match100¢-1%
Taiwanese hinge manufacturer Shin Zu Shing has become the main supplier of hinges for Apple's first foldable phone, the "iPhone Duo," replacing Amphenol, a US company with low yield rates. However, Shin Zu Shing's production capacity remains unstable, and currently it can only ship "golden samples" that meet Apple's standards to Foxconn. The hinge is the most critical component causing delays in iPhone Duo production. Apple uses 3D-printed hinge modules, which contain over 100 parts. Due to the change of the primary supplier, Shin Zu Shing must produce according to the specifications previously agreed upon by Amphenol and Apple, which is more challenging. In addition, the supply of the back plate supporting the folding panel is also tight, and China's Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing is experiencing difficulties in mass production. Despite the continued disruptions to some parts, Apple has estimated to its supply chain that it can produce approximately 5 to 6 million units of the necessary components by the end of this year. The iPhone Duo was announced on October 9th, with pre-orders starting on October 16th and sales beginning on October 23rd. In South Korea, the 256GB version is priced at 3.29 million won, but industry insiders believe that the 512GB version is the actual base model, priced at around 3.6 million won.
YESalarabiya95%match100¢-1%
At its conference, Apple launched its first ever foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, officially entering the foldable phone race. The phone features a 7.6-inch internal screen, an A20 Pro chip, and up to 2TB of storage in the top-of-the-line version. Prices start at $1,999 and go up to $3,199 for the highest-end model. What do you think? Is it worth the price?
YESfnn.jp96%match99¢
Apple has announced its first foldable iPhone Duo. In Japan, the 256GB model will start at 364,800 yen. Pre-orders will begin on the 16th of next month, and it will be released on the 23rd.
YESnewsdig.tbs.co.jp92%match99¢
iPhone's first "foldable" model announced, starting at a record high of 364,800 yen. Will New Yorkers buy it? A dedicated section for foldable phones is also being set up in Japan.
YESetnews.com92%match99¢
Apple Unveils First Foldable Smartphone, iPhone Duo
YESnews.tv-asahi.co.jp97%match100¢-1%
Apple has announced a foldable iPhone; it will be released on October 23rd for over 360,000 to 570,000 yen, and is passport-sized.
YESyomiuri.co.jp95%match99¢
Apple unveils its first foldable iPhone, the "Duo," starting at ¥364,800...opens to reveal a 7.6-inch screen.
YESfnn.jp97%match99¢
Apple has announced its first foldable iPhone Duo, which opens to reveal its largest screen ever at 7.6 inches. It will be priced from around 360,000 yen and will be released in October.
YESsankei.com93%match100¢-1%
Apple's first foldable iPhone to launch October 23rd, starting at 300,000 yen, to compete with rivals.
YES47news.jp94%match100¢-1%
Apple's first foldable iPhone to launch October 23rd, starting at 360,000 yen, to compete with rivals.
YESnews.sky.com94%match99¢
Apple launches first foldable iPhone
YEScnn.com92%match99¢
Apple announces the iPhone Duo, its first foldable iPhone
YESfnn.jp97%match99¢
Apple has announced its first foldable iPhone Duo, featuring a record-breaking 7.6-inch screen when unfolded. Prices start at around 360,000 yen, and it will be released next month.
YESthetimes.com94%match99¢
Apple launches its first foldable iPhone
YESfortune.com93%match85¢+16%
Apple to launch $2,000-plus foldable ‘iPhone Ultra’ in early September: report
YESWalter Bloomberg99%match83¢+19%
$AAPL - APPLE'S FOLDABLE IPHONE MAY SELL OUT FAST • • Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects Apple's first foldable iPhone to see strong demand, with preorders potentially selling out quickly despite a $2,300–$2,500 price tag. • • Limited production could delay the launch until late 2026, with initial shipments of 7–8 million units expected in the second half of the year.
YESforbes.com99%match81¢+22%
Apple IPhone Fold Release Date New Production Target. • Apple has raised its foldable iPhone production target to 10 million units, up from 7-8 million. At a predicted $2,500, here's what the numbers mean for buyers.
YESjukan0598%match83¢+19%
Samsung Secures D RAM Purchase Order from Apple for Foldable Phone • • Samsung Electronics has received a purchase order (PO) from Apple for DRAM to be used in its upcoming foldable phone. It has also been confirmed that Samsung successfully negotiated a significant year-over-year price increase. DRAM supply is set to proceed in line with Apple's foldable phone launch schedule. Apple is planning to release its foldable phone in the second half of this year. • • The supply volume is understood to be modest. As Apple's first foldable phone, many forecasts project annual shipments to remain in the low millions of units — less than 5% of Apple's total annual iPhone shipments. • • According to industry sources on the 9th, Samsung Electronics recently received a PO from Apple for 12GB LPDDR5X DRAM, which will be integrated into Apple's first foldable device. • • DRAM supply will be timed to Apple's foldable launch schedule. As Apple targets a second-half launch, Samsung is set to begin supplying DRAM from Q2 onwards. • • Apple is one of Samsung's key customers and has historically sourced memory at relatively favorable pricing given the scale of its demand. However, the latest contract reflects a notable price increase compared to prior years. • • A memory semiconductor industry source noted that the increase is understood to be nearly double compared to the prior year, while adding that even at the new pricing, Apple is still receiving supply at a discount relative to other customers. The source also commented that the sharp DRAM price increases since the second half of last year have been partially passed through to Apple as well. • • Beyond Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron are also believed to have secured DRAM POs for the Apple foldable, consistent with Apple's supply chain management strategy of maintaining multiple vendors. That said, Samsung — with the most available DRAM capacity — is expected to serve as the primary vendor for the foldable. • • On the display side, Samsung Display is the sole supplier for the Apple foldable's panel. Existing vendors LG Display and BOE have yet to establish stable mass production capabilities for foldable displays, leaving Samsung Display as the only viable option at this stage. • • Samsung Display has built up relevant technology and mass production experience through supplying panels for Samsung Electronics' own foldable lineup. Industry observers broadly expect Samsung Display to maintain exclusivity through the second and third generations of the Apple foldable. • • In connection with this, Samsung Display constructed a dedicated production line for the Apple foldable at its Asan, South Chungcheong Province facility last year, with full-scale mass production slated to begin in Q2 of this year. • • Given that this is Apple's first foldable, production volumes are expected to remain limited. Market research firms project Apple foldable shipments to come in at several million units this year — a constrained figure relative to Apple's annual smartphone sales base of approximately 250 million units. • • For component suppliers, however, the symbolic significance is considerable. Securing a position in Apple's high-end product supply chain is widely regarded as validation of both technological capability and reliability. • • $AAPL

Where does the news lean?

59YES4NO22neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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