Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Anthropic
Open$15Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES13¢
NO87¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Anthropic sees AI risks rising, no plan to release stronger "Model 2"
Anthropic sees AI risks rising, no plan to release stronger "Model 2"
YESReuters96%match8¢+63%
Anthropic Releases Opus 5 AI Model with Fable 5-Like Capabilities at Half the Price, Company Says
YESFirst Squawk98%match28¢-54%
Anthropic plans to spend at least $80B on Amazon, Google, and Microsoft cloud services to run Claude AI through 2029 – The Information.
Where does the news lean?
6YES3NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
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