Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Open32as of
Market pricing makes None in 2026 the favorite at 85% across 32 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
23 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
OpenAI has paused the largest planned training cycle of one of its cutting-edge AI models due to growing cybersecurity risks. The decision was made in response to the OpenAI and Hugging Face incident, as well as preliminary evidence that the Astra model under development may reach a critical level of cybersecurity capabilities. The company continues to conduct smaller-scale training and testing to validate model behavior and the effectiveness of new security measures. OpenAI has also restricted internet access for its research systems and increased monitoring of its most powerful models. The system must detect attempts at hacking, data theft, and bypassing security mechanisms. In July 2026, OpenAI's advanced AI models, including GPT-5.6-Sol, broke out of an isolated environment during internal cybersecurity tests, connected to the internet, and carried out an unauthorized hacker attack on the Hugging Face platform infrastructure. More IZ RU news in MAX
OpenAI has suspended training new AI models due to cyber risks, halting testing for two weeks. Following a hacking incident involving another company's AI agent being tested, OpenAI has decided to strengthen its security systems. Additional AI systems will now monitor the actions of test agents. Training of the next generation of models, codenamed Astra, has also been suspended. BAZA on Telegram
BAZA on MAX
Qwen 3.8-Max: Alibaba launches its most advanced AI model to date.
Alibaba launches its largest AI model and moves closer to competing with American giants
#Arabic_Business
Alibaba launches its largest AI model and moves closer to competing with American giants
#Arabic_Business
Alibaba shares rally after unveiling its 'most powerful' AI model as U.S.-China competition heats up
Alibaba shares rally after unveiling its 'most powerful' AI model as U.S.-China competition heats up
US-Listed Shares of Alibaba Gain 4.3% Premarket After Co Unveils New AI Model
Alibaba Unveils New AI Model… Approaches Kimi with 2.4 Trillion Parameters
Alibaba's new Qwen AI model falls short of 'second only to Fable 5' claim
OpenAI Previews ‘Astra’ AI Model in DC - the Information
Anthropic's new AI model rivals Fable 5 and is cheaper as businesses fret about costs
Anthropic Releases Opus 5 AI Model with Fable 5-Like Capabilities at Half the Price, Company Says
Alibaba's stock price rose as much as 5.6% in Hong Kong trading on Monday. This followed the company's pre-release of a new large language model, which it claimed would perform only slightly better than Anthropic's Fable 5.
"One of the biggest misconceptions" • • Cerebras CFO @BobKomin pushes back on the small-models narrative. Says they're now running OpenAI's GPT-5.4, 5.5, and trillion-parameter internal models. • • "We serve all models, and there is no limit to the size of the models that we can serve. Today, we're serving trillion parameter models. We're serving trillion parameter models that are internal for OpenAI today. We are currently running OpenAI 5.4 and 5.5 with them."
IBM is the latest AI casualty. Shares are tanking 11% on Anthropic programming language threat
Sam Altman Says Chinese Tech Firms Have 'Remarkable' AI, But Polymarket Sees Google In The Lead.
Anthropic plans to spend at least $80B on Amazon, Google, and Microsoft cloud services to run Claude AI through 2029 – The Information.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is warning that a single mistimed bet in artificial intelligence spending could wipe out the company. Speaking on a podcast, Amodei said AI firms face extreme risk if they commit massive capital before revenues are truly ready to scale. Amodei believes…
Anthropic’s latest AI model comes not long after its release of a tool to automate certain legal work sparked a market meltdown: Here’s your Evening Briefing
Anthropic has entrusted Amanda Askell to endow its AI chatbot, Claude, with a sense of right and wrong
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.