Best Chinese AI Company end of September?Alibaba
Open$48Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 70% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES70¢
NO30¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Alibaba’s latest AI model puts it back in the great game
Alibaba Just Gave Away Its Best AI Model For Free, Almost Matching Claude and ChatGPT
Has China truly begun to surpass America in artificial intelligence? The question may seem shocking, but current events are prompting markets to ask it. Alibaba unveiled its Qwen 3.8 Max model, claiming it outperforms Anthropic's most powerful models in some tests. Months ago, many predicted that US chip restrictions would slow China down, but the opposite occurred: DeepSec, then Kemei, and now Alibaba, all at a surprisingly rapid pace. Alibaba's stock jumped more than 7% after the announcement. If China is advancing this quickly despite the restrictions, what would happen if they disappeared one day?
@mayaj_bn #Arabic_Business
Qwen 3.8-Max: Alibaba launches its most advanced AI model to date.
China's Alibaba unveils AI with "performance approaching that of US companies," at less than half the price
Alibaba has released a new AI model, calling it Qwen 3.8-Max, the most powerful model in the Qwen family to date. This model boasts 2.4 trillion parameters and will be fully open-sourced next week.
Alibaba officially releasing Qwen 3.8-Max, the most capable model in the Qwen family to date. • Qwen 3.8-Max scales to 2.4 trillion parameters, delivering comprehensive improvements across coding, work, research, and long-horizon tasks. • #ALIBABA $BABA #CHINA #AI #LLM
Where does the news lean?
17YES0NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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