Next leader out of power before 2027?Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$25Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESReuters99%match97¢+3%
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed, senior Israeli official says
YESTIME99%match97¢+3%
Appointed Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran at age 50, Ali Khamenei — whose 36-year rule over the Islamic Republic of Iran fused theology and force to steer the country into confrontation abroad and repression at home — was the longest serving ruler in the Middle…
YESPOLITICO98%match97¢+3%
BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran, according to President Donald Trump.
YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match96¢+4%
President Trump declared on Truth Social that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said previously that Israel had destroyed the compound of Iran’s supreme leader. Follow live:
YESThe New York Times98%match96¢+4%
Breaking News: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, President Trump said. Follow live updates.
YESFirst Squawk98%match96¢+4%
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was killed Saturday after the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, according to President Donald Trump. He was 86-BBG
YESBloomberg98%match96¢+4%
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was killed Saturday after the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, according to President Donald Trump. He was 86.
YESGlobe Eye News98%match96¢+4%
BREAKING: President Trump confirms death of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei.
YESThe Associated Press98%match96¢+4%
BREAKING: President Trump says Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead, calls it "greatest chance" for Iranians to take back the country.
YESTIME98%match96¢+4%
Breaking: Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on Saturday in the opening salvo of a major military campaign launched by the United States and Israel.
YESBreaking91198%match96¢+4%
POTUS confirms the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei [Quoting @Breaking911]
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YESAcyn98%match96¢+4%
Trump: Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty…
YESFaytuks News98%match96¢+4%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, Trump confirms
YESBNO News98%match96¢+4%
RT @BNODesk: FLASH: TRUMP SAYS IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER ALI KHAMENEI CONFIRMED DEAD
YESCGTN Europe98%match96¢+4%
Trump: ‘Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty…
YESunusual_whales99%match96¢+4%
RT @Polymarket: BREAKING: 95% chance the Supreme Leader of Iran has been removed from power.
YESGlobe Eye News99%match94¢+6%
BREAKING: U.S. intelligence assesses that the Iranian Supreme Leader and another 5 to 10 top leaders have been killed.
YESAxios98%match94¢+6%
RT @BarakRavid: ISRAEL SAYS IRAN SUPREME LEADER KHAMENEI IS DEAD. My report on @axios
YESThe Spectator Index99%match94¢+6%
BREAKING: US intelligence assesses that Iran's Supreme Leader and another 5 to 10 top leaders have been killed, according to Fox News report.
YESLeading Report99%match94¢+6%
RT @Polymarket: BREAKING: 95% chance the Supreme Leader of Iran has been removed from power.
YESLeading Report99%match94¢+6%
BREAKING: Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has passed, a senior Israeli official tells Reuters.
YESAl Jazeera English99%match94¢+6%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed and his body has been found, reports Reuters, citing Israeli media reports. LIVE updates:
YESAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match67¢+49%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed, Reuters and Israeli media report citing unnamed senior Israeli officials LIVE updates:
YESPolymarket99%match67¢+49%
BREAKING: 95% chance the Supreme Leader of Iran has been removed from power.
YESAxios98%match67¢+49%
BREAKING: ISRAEL SAYS IRAN SUPREME LEADER KHAMENEI IS DEAD
YESHuffPost Politics98%match67¢+49%
A senior Israeli official told Reuters that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes.
YESOSINTdefender98%match67¢+49%
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike this morning on Iran, with his body being found recently among the rubble, Israeli officials tell The Times of Israel.
YESFaytuks News98%match67¢+49%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed and his body has been retrieved - Kann News
YESThe Spectator Index98%match67¢+49%
BREAKING: Israeli officials say Iran's Supreme Leader has been eliminated, according to Israeli media.
YESCGTN Europe98%match67¢+49%
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Iran this morning, an Israeli official says - reports
Where does the news lean?
79YES6NO10neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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