Next leader out of power before 2027?
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This hub tracks 26 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Hundreds of people were seen cheering in the streets of Isfahan, with celebratory gunfire reported, following reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been eliminated.
Iranians celebrate the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Iran.
Iranians have taken to the streets to celebrate the death of Khamenei.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed, senior Israeli official says
Appointed Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran at age 50, Ali Khamenei — whose 36-year rule over the Islamic Republic of Iran fused theology and force to steer the country into confrontation abroad and repression at home — was the longest serving ruler in the Middle…
BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran, according to President Donald Trump.
#BREAKING: Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead
President Trump declared on Truth Social that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said previously that Israel had destroyed the compound of Iran’s supreme leader. Follow live:
Breaking News: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, President Trump said. Follow live updates.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was killed Saturday after the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, according to President Donald Trump. He was 86-BBG
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was killed Saturday after the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, according to President Donald Trump. He was 86.
BREAKING: President Trump confirms death of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei.
BREAKING: President Trump says Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead, calls it "greatest chance" for Iranians to take back the country.
Breaking: Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on Saturday in the opening salvo of a major military campaign launched by the United States and Israel.
POTUS confirms the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei [Quoting @Breaking911]
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Trump says Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead
Trump: Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty…
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, Trump confirms
RT @BNODesk: FLASH: TRUMP SAYS IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER ALI KHAMENEI CONFIRMED DEAD
Trump: ‘Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead. This is not only Justice for the people of Iran, but for all Great Americans, and those people from many Countries throughout the World, that have been killed or mutilated by Khamenei and his gang of bloodthirsty…
RT @Polymarket: BREAKING: 95% chance the Supreme Leader of Iran has been removed from power.
RT @Polymarket: BREAKING: 95% chance the Supreme Leader of Iran has been removed from power.
BREAKING: Iran’s semi-official Tasnim and Mehr news agencies are reporting that the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is “steadfast and firm in commanding the field.” LIVE updates:
BREAKING: Israeli officials tell AP Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. Neither Iran nor the U.S. have confirmed. Follow AP's live updates for more.
JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli officials tell AP Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. Neither Iran nor the U.S. have confirmed.
[Replying to @AJEnglish] Reuters news agency and Israeli media have reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has been killed, citing unnamed “senior” Israeli officials. Al Jazeera’s @TohidAsadi said there has been no official confirmation from Tehran. LIVE updates: >
BREAKING: U.S. intelligence assesses that the Iranian Supreme Leader and another 5 to 10 top leaders have been killed.
RT @BarakRavid: ISRAEL SAYS IRAN SUPREME LEADER KHAMENEI IS DEAD. My report on @axios
BREAKING: US intelligence assesses that Iran's Supreme Leader and another 5 to 10 top leaders have been killed, according to Fox News report.
BREAKING: Israeli sources say Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in strikes. Follow live updates:
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.