Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$1.4MResolvedas of

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This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

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28 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOiranintl97%match
The right-wing Alternative for Germany party came in first place in a historic election in the state of Saxony-Anhalt with about 44 percent of the vote. However, it will not be able to form a new government in the state without an absolute majority. Germany's main parties also reject any coalition with the party. In this election, the Christian Democratic Party of German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz suffered a heavy defeat with about 18.5 percent. Interview with Lili Nikfar, Iran International correspondent
NOleparisien.fr93%match100¢
“We will offer negotiations to all parties”: In Germany, the AfD still needs to find a majority to govern its first state.
NOalmayadeennews97%match100¢
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party made significant gains in Sunday's Saxony-Anhalt state elections, bringing the far-right party closer to state power for the first time since World War II.
NOalarabiya97%match100¢
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party failed to secure an absolute majority in the state of Saxony-Anhalt despite leading in the polls.
NOanadoluajansi98%match100¢
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the state parliament election in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany, with 43.8% of the vote. The AfD achieved its strongest result ever in a state parliament election, more than doubling its 20.8% vote share from the 2021 election. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) lost 19.9 percentage points compared to 2021, becoming the second largest party with 17.2% of the vote. The AfD fell short of the 42 seats needed to form a government, failing to secure a majority on its own.
YESRussian Media97%match0¢
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has achieved a convincing victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament elections, receiving 43.8% of the vote, according to preliminary results from the electoral commission. This is the best result ever achieved by the party in state parliament elections, Die Welt reports. If the results are confirmed, the AfD will lead the regional government, Politico reports. The publication calls this outcome a failure of the struggle for German identity, which began under Chancellors Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel. Politico recalls that under Merkel, who was born in Hamburg but grew up in East Germany, eastern German cities recovered, industrial pollution became a thing of the past, and broken roads were replaced by modern autobahns. However, the foundations of prosperity were shaken in 2015–2016, when Merkel allowed a massive influx of asylum seekers, sparking a wave of indignation in the eastern regions. RBK channel on "Max" RBK app for iOS and Android
Preliminary results of the elections to the state parliament of the German state of Saxony-Anhalt confirmed the historic victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany, but without the absolute majority they had hoped for. The AfD has improved its results by half compared to 2021 and is winning with 43.8% - this gives them 39 seats out of the 42 needed for a majority (there are 83 seats in the state parliament in total). American billionaire Elon Musk congratulated the far-right German party on its victory in the elections subscribe
NOIran State News Agency94%match100¢
Far-right party wins German state election ⠀ Politico: The Alternative for Germany party won about 44% of the vote in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, registering its best electoral result since its founding, coming within a very small distance of forming a government for the first time. #IRNA_World⠀ @IRNA_1313
NOJ.Post / i24 Reporter98%match100¢
In the end: The right-wing AfD party was 3 seats short of an absolute majority (they won 39 out of 42). Apparently: They have the option of forming a coalition with the far-left BSW party Currently: The AfD party has signaled that it is not interested in a coalition [in reply to: For the first time since World War II, a far-right party will head a state in Germany The results of the election models for the local parliament of the state of Saxony-Anhalt in Germany show that the right-wing AfD party received about 44.5% of the total vote, more than 2 times the percentage of votes received by the CDU party of the current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Currently: It is not 50% - which would have allowed it to govern without a coalition]
NOukrpravda_news97%match100¢
German elections: AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, but without an absolute majority
NOnbcnews.com93%match100¢
Far-right Alternative for Germany party wins big in regional election but falls short of majority
NOiranintl98%match100¢
The right-wing Alternative for Germany party won the state election in Saxony-Anhalt with 43.8 percent of the vote and 39 seats in the 83-seat parliament, but is three seats short of an outright majority, the Associated Press reported. The party won more than double the number of votes it received in the election five years ago. Ulrich Sigmund, the party's candidate for state governor, said the AfD had "made history" and given voters a clear mandate to govern. The Christian Democratic Union, led by Chancellor Friedrich Mertz, lost almost half of its support with 17.2 percent of the vote and 15 seats. The party has led the state government for the past 24 years. Mainstream parties have rejected cooperation with the AfD, and the differences between them have made it difficult to form a stable government. If the AfD can form a government, it will lead a German state for the first time in its history.
NOChannel 12 (N12)98%match100¢
Assaf Rosenzweig Elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in Germany: The far-right AfD party won 39 seats, just three short of the number needed to achieve an absolute majority in the local parliament. It will try to hold talks with other parties, which in turn have repeated that they will not sit in government with it. The CDU party, the conservative right of Chancellor Merz, which won 17% of the vote, has also made it clear that it will not sit with the left, so any political scenario now looks very complex and is expected to include tedious talks for all sides
NOKan98%match100¢
The Alternative for Germany party won about 44% of the vote in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections, without an absolute majority in the state parliament.
NOnews.sky.com94%match100¢
Live: AfD wins regional election but falls short of absolute majority
NOspiegel.de97%match100¢
State election in Saxony-Anhalt: AfD wins ahead of CDU, but misses out on an absolute majority
NOwelt.de96%match100¢
Election in Saxony-Anhalt: AfD wins state election clearly – but misses out on an absolute majority
NOmainichi.jp92%match100¢
In the eastern German state parliamentary elections, a far-right party emerged as the largest party; the focus now shifts to whether it will take over state government.
NOelonmusk92%match100¢
Sachsen-Anhalt hat gesprochen: Die AfD ist mit 44,2% mehr als doppelt so stark wie die CDU und hat einen Regierungsauftrag erhalten. Gratulation an Ulrich Siegmund und die AfD Sachsen-Anhalt!
NOsankei.com93%match100¢
Germany's "far-right shock": AfD becomes the largest party in former East German state elections, shaking the Merz government.
NOfaz.net94%match99¢+1%
Saxony-Anhalt: These are the ways the AfD could now come to power
NOfaz.net95%match93¢+8%
Saxony-Anhalt election 2026: Suddenly the AfD is looking for a coalition partner
NOspiegel.de94%match73¢+37%
State election in Saxony-Anhalt: CDU suffers a collapse, AfD close to an absolute majority
NOUkrainian Media97%match73¢+37%
Far-right AfD wins election in German Saxony-Anhalt with record 44.5% The Alternative for Germany more than doubles its result compared to the 2021 elections, when it received 20.8%. According to Reuters, this is the AfD's best result in state elections in the party's entire history. The Christian Democratic Union of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has ruled the state since 2002, receives only 18.5% compared to 37.1% five years ago. This is followed by the Left with 9.4%, the Greens with 8.9%, and the SPD with 8.2%. Sarah Wagenknecht's Alliance with 5% is still teetering on the brink of entering parliament. At the same time, the AfD still lacks the mandates to form a government alone. Other parties that are guaranteed to enter the state parliament are refusing to form a coalition with it. If the final distribution of mandates does not change the situation, the AfD may win the elections but remain without power. The result is particularly telling for Ukraine: the AfD advocates the termination of German support for Ukraine, the lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation, and the restoration of economic and political ties with Moscow. The party's state program also proposes to seek the abolition of the status of war refugees for Ukrainians and prepare their return to Ukraine. The AfD center in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as right-wing extremist by German counterintelligence since 2023. If the party still manages to form a government on its own, it will be the first time in the history of Germany that a federal state will be governed by a political force with such status. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
NOapnews.com92%match76¢+32%
[UPDATE] German far-right party set for strong win in regional election but uncertain of governing (first reported at 2026-09-06T06:10:08Z)
NOyna.co.kr97%match71¢+41%
German far-right AfD predicts 44% of vote in Saxony-Anhalt state parliamentary election
NOtheguardian.com93%match72¢+39%
Far-right AfD wins key German state election but may fail to secure majority
NOwelt.de94%match72¢+39%
State election 2026: Polls, minority scenario – What you need to know about the election in Saxony-Anhalt

Where does the news lean?

43YES78NO66neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

How did this market resolve?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).