US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?

OpenVol$80KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES3¢
NO97¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOnewsdig.tbs.co.jp92%match96¢+1%
The United States, Denmark, and Greenland have signed an agreement that allows for the expansion of the US military presence in Greenland, including the establishment of two military facilities.
NOReuters Reporter92%match96¢+1%
WASHINGTON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The United States, Denmark and Greenland have entered into an agreement that will see the US develop a significant military presence on the island, while prohibiting US adversaries from building their own bases there, Donald Trump said on Friday.
NOrbc.ru92%match96¢+1%
The US and Denmark have reached an agreement on Greenland.
NOCGTN America98%match90¢+8%
OSLO-DENMARK FOREIGN MINISTER­:­ DESPITE THE THREATS FROM THE U.S., WE WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE TO EXPLORE THE DIPLOMATIC TRACK
NOCGTN Europe98%match90¢+8%
OSLO-DENMARK FOREIGN MINISTER­:­ DESPITE THE THREATS FROM THE U.S., WE WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE TO EXPLORE THE DIPLOMATIC TRACK

Where does the news lean?

0YES7NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.