US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Open$186Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES8¢
NO92¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The United States is committed to Ukraine's sovereignty - Rubio US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on behalf of his country, congratulated the people of Ukraine on the 35th anniversary of independence and stressed that America is committed to Ukrainian sovereignty, the US State Department said in a statement. "On behalf of the United States of America, I congratulate the people of Ukraine on the 35th anniversary of your independence. The United States is committed to Ukraine's sovereignty and continues to work to support a negotiated settlement to the Russian-Ukrainian war that will establish a strong and lasting peace," the statement said.
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NOzerohedge98%match59¢+56%
The US and Ukraine have agreed to a “framework of security arrangements” after two days of meetings between officials from both countries, the State Department says in a statement.
NOCGTN America97%match59¢+56%
[Replying to @cgtnamerica] US STATE DEPT: UMEROV REAFFIRMED THAT UKRAINE'S PRIORITY IS SECURING A SETTLEMENT THAT PROTECTS ITS INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY >
NOCGTN Europe97%match59¢+56%
US STATE DEPT: UMEROV REAFFIRMED THAT UKRAINE'S PRIORITY IS SECURING A SETTLEMENT THAT PROTECTS ITS INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.