U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
Open$179Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado
Venezuela transition talks set to kick off without Machado
US President Donald Trump: Venezuela is not yet ready to hold elections... but we have made great progress, and the Delcy administration is doing a fantastic job... and major US oil companies are preparing to invest there.
US President Donald Trump: Venezuela is not yet ready to hold elections... but we have made great progress, and the Delcy administration is doing a fantastic job... and major US oil companies are preparing to invest there.
Where does the news lean?
2YES6NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 65% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.