U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
Open$180Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Rubio also said that President Trump had spoken the previous evening with Delcy Rodríguez, who has led Venezuela since the United States seized President Nicolás Maduro in January, and that Trump had discussed building up Venezuela’s economy and laying the foundation for a political transition in the country. Rubio said that an economic crisis would endanger “the survival of a democracy there, which is ultimately what we want to see in Venezuela.” He added that he knew nothing of recent efforts by María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader, to try to return to Venezuela and the roadblocks she has encountered.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado fails in return attempts as Rodriguez meets Trump
#Video Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Collina Machado told the Wall Street Journal that she can't wait any longer. The Trump administration has signed a major oil deal with the Rodriguez government. In an interview prior to the announcement of the deal, Machado detailed her plans to push for a democratic transition in Venezuela, despite some resistance from the U.S.
US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado
Venezuela transition talks set to kick off without Machado
US President Donald Trump: Venezuela is not yet ready to hold elections... but we have made great progress, and the Delcy administration is doing a fantastic job... and major US oil companies are preparing to invest there.
US President Donald Trump: Venezuela is not yet ready to hold elections... but we have made great progress, and the Delcy administration is doing a fantastic job... and major US oil companies are preparing to invest there.
Where does the news lean?
4YES15NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.