US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$2.3MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESmarketnews_feed99%match64¢+56%
76% THERE IS A US X IRAN PERMANENT PEACE DEAL BY DECEMBER 31, 2026, PER POLYMARKET: ...
NOmarkoinny99%match43¢-100%
Iran wanted US deal badly before the talks, and after the talks, just somehow during the talks they rejected US deal. Ok. •
NOmarkoinny99%match43¢-100%
Iran wanted US deal badly before the talka, and after talks, just somehow during the talks they rejected US deal. Ok. •
NOChannel 12 (N12)98%match45¢-100%
Bezalel Foundation Trump: Iran has not agreed to give up its nuclear program, if it does not give up there will be no agreement
NOdbws.io99%match53¢-100%
South Korean shares fall after US and Iran fail to reach deal
NOcbsnews.com98%match40¢-100%
Iranian negotiator says ahead of talks that delegation has "good intentions" but "we do not trust"
YESzerohedge98%match55¢+82%
US- Iran negotiations really accelerating
YESFirst Squawk98%match44¢+127%
IRAN PRESIDENT SAYS U.S NUCLEAR TALKS 'A STEP FORWARD
YESFirst Squawk98%match44¢+127%
Trump: Iran looks like they want to make a deal very badly as they should.
YESFirst Squawk99%match44¢+127%
We’re going to meet again early next week. They want to make a deal. Iran, as they should, want to make a deal
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match44¢+127%
Donald Trump says a nuclear-only deal with Iran would be acceptable, stressing “no nuclear weapons” as the red line. He also said Iran is now more willing to compromise than it was a year ago.
YEStradfi news98%match42¢+138%
*TRUMP: GOING TO MEET AGAIN WITH IRAN EARLY NEXT WEEK *TRUMP: DEAL CAN BE REACHED WITH IRAN, HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
YESFinancialJuice98%match42¢+138%
Trump: Iran desires to make a deal Trump: We have plenty of time regarding Iran deal Trump: We will meet next week regarding Iran
YESAxios98%match44¢+127%
U.S. and Iran plan to continue nuclear talks after first round in Oman
YESFinancialJuice98%match45¢+122%
The US and Iran begin nuclear talks in Oman - Iran's SNN
YESPolymarket99%match33¢+203%
[Replying to @BRICSinfo] @BRICSinfo 33% chance a US-Iran nuclear deal is signed this year. > JUST IN: President Trump says Iran wants a deal as a large US warship fleet arrives in the Middle East.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match68¢-100%
US officials say any deal with Iran would require removal of enriched uranium, limits on long-range missiles, an end to proxy support, and a ban on independent enrichment-Axios Iran has not agreed.

Where does the news lean?

18YES9NO8neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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