US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$2.3Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
17 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
76% THERE IS A US X IRAN PERMANENT PEACE DEAL BY DECEMBER 31, 2026, PER POLYMARKET: ...
Iran wanted US deal badly before the talks, and after the talks, just somehow during the talks they rejected US deal. Ok. •
Iran wanted US deal badly before the talka, and after talks, just somehow during the talks they rejected US deal. Ok. •
Bezalel Foundation Trump: Iran has not agreed to give up its nuclear program, if it does not give up there will be no agreement
South Korean shares fall after US and Iran fail to reach deal
Iranian negotiator says ahead of talks that delegation has "good intentions" but "we do not trust"
US- Iran negotiations really accelerating
YESFirst Squawk98%match44¢+127%
IRAN PRESIDENT SAYS U.S NUCLEAR TALKS 'A STEP FORWARD
YESFirst Squawk98%match44¢+127%
Trump: Iran looks like they want to make a deal very badly as they should.
YESFirst Squawk99%match44¢+127%
We’re going to meet again early next week. They want to make a deal. Iran, as they should, want to make a deal
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match44¢+127%
Donald Trump says a nuclear-only deal with Iran would be acceptable, stressing “no nuclear weapons” as the red line. He also said Iran is now more willing to compromise than it was a year ago.
YEStradfi news98%match42¢+138%
*TRUMP: GOING TO MEET AGAIN WITH IRAN EARLY NEXT WEEK *TRUMP: DEAL CAN BE REACHED WITH IRAN, HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
YESFinancialJuice98%match42¢+138%
Trump: Iran desires to make a deal Trump: We have plenty of time regarding Iran deal Trump: We will meet next week regarding Iran
YESAxios98%match44¢+127%
U.S. and Iran plan to continue nuclear talks after first round in Oman
YESFinancialJuice98%match45¢+122%
The US and Iran begin nuclear talks in Oman - Iran's SNN
YESPolymarket99%match33¢+203%
[Replying to @BRICSinfo] @BRICSinfo 33% chance a US-Iran nuclear deal is signed this year. > JUST IN: President Trump says Iran wants a deal as a large US warship fleet arrives in the Middle East.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match68¢-100%
US officials say any deal with Iran would require removal of enriched uranium, limits on long-range missiles, an end to proxy support, and a ban on independent enrichment-Axios Iran has not agreed.
Where does the news lean?
18YES9NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.