Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black SeaJuly 31

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$2KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESUkrainian Media92%match69¢+45%
GUR masters hit high-value targets of the occupiers in southern Ukraine On the night of July 29-30, drones hit: the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun complex in the Kherson region; the Project 1100M boat "Sargan" in the city of Kerch, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea; the Forpost UAV ground control station in the city of Yevpatoria, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The estimated cost of the Russian Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun complex is about $15 million, and the Sargan high-speed patrol boat is about $6 million. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.

Where does the news lean?

1YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Black Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the vessel will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

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