Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Open$2.9Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES9¢
NO92¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
KREMLIN: UKRAINE PEACE DEAL REMAINS DISTANT • • The Kremlin says it is too early to discuss the prospects or details of any new Ukraine peace plan. • • Moscow says a peace settlement remains possible, but there are currently no concrete signs of progress. • • The Kremlin also declined to confirm a potential Witkoff-Kushner visit to Moscow, saying it will provide information if and when a visit takes place.
3 days ceasefire in Russia Ukraine effective from tomorrow
YESFirst Squawk98%match41¢-78%
ZELENSKYY SAID A US SECURITY GUARANTEES AGREEMENT FOR UKRAINE IS FULLY READY FOR SIGNING, WITH TALKS SET TO RESUME IN THE UAE AS KYIV PUSHES FOR EU MEMBERSHIP BY 2027 AMID ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS TO END THE WAR WITH RUSSIA.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match59¢+54%
Ukraine Russia peace talks continue to be stuck and result in no deal.
Where does the news lean?
4YES4NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.