Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
Open$26Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 85% chance that this market resolves Up, as of .
Up85¢
Down15¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
EXCLUSIVE-LinkedIn planning to lay off 5% of staff in latest tech-sector cuts, source says
Tech layoffs in Q1 were the highest since the tech recession of 22/23 (via
NOW: Cloudflare plans to slash 1,100+ jobs, making up one-fifth of its workforce as it shifts to an AI-first operating model.
Where does the news lean?
19Up2Down2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve Up?
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.