Starmer outDecember 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$3.6Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
68% chance Starmer out of office this year. • •
79% chance Starmer is gone by December 31st - Polymarket
Market moves pared slightly after Starmer said he intends to fight on
This Is Why podcast: Why is it so difficult to replace Keir Starmer?
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer says he intends to remain in office for 10 years.
Starmer: I want to be PM for a decade
Louise Haigh, highly influential Labour MP and head of the soft-left Tribune group, calls for Starmer to set out departure timetable. This is quite big
NOBloomberg98%match32¢-100%
The strategy that brought Keir Starmer to Downing Street ran out of road this week. The question now is what takes its place — and whether members of Parliament give the UK prime minister time to see it through.
NOCNBC99%match31¢-100%
UK PM Keir Starmer suffers blow after his party comes in third in election in former stronghold
NOReuters98%match36¢-100%
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer takes questions in parliament
NOReuters98%match31¢-100%
After bruising day, UK's Starmer pledges to never walk away from his job
NOVisegrád 2499%match30¢-100%
Starmer: "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country."
NOFinancialJuice98%match30¢-100%
UK's PM Starmer: I will lead the Labour Party into the next General Election.
NOFinancialJuice98%match30¢-100%
UK's PM Starmer: I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this nation.
YESThe Economist98%match70¢+43%
This year promised to be a defining one for Sir Keir Starmer’s prime ministership. It looks increasingly likely to be his last. We track the polls
NOThe Wall Street Journal98%match25¢-100%
Keir Starmer entered Downing Street in 2024 with a large majority and a mandate to bring calm. Just 19 months later, he is one of Britain’s least popular leaders in modern times and is hanging to power by a thread.
NOWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match29¢-100%
Surely Kier Starmer will resign soon…
YESThe Economist99%match47¢+113%
The latest reading from our Starmer tracker
YESBloomberg98%match53¢+89%
Keir Starmer warns Labour that removing him in 2026 would plunge Britain into “utter chaos” and open the door to a far-right government
Where does the news lean?
15YES29NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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See all outcomes for Starmer out — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.