What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?↓ $4,500

OpenVol$60KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES3¢
NO97¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOalarabiya_bn95%match97¢
A Reuters survey predicts the S&P 500 will end 2026 at 7,900 points, up from a previous forecast of 7,620. #ArabicBusiness
NOWalter Bloomberg97%match97¢
S&P 500 SEEN HITTING 7,900 • • Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to end 2026 at 7,900, about 3% above current levels, according to a Reuters poll. • • Strong corporate earnings, booming AI investment and hopes for easing US-Iran tensions are supporting optimism. • <b... S&P 500 SEEN HITTING 7,900 • • Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to end 2026 at 7,900, about 3% above current levels, according to a Reuters poll. • • Strong corporate earnings, booming AI investment and hopes for easing US-Iran tensions are supporting optimism. • • However, strategists warn that high valuations, rising tech-sector leverage, Fed policy and US midterm elections could create volatility.
NOWalter Bloomberg97%match97¢
REUTERS POLL-S&P 500 TO END 2026 AT 7,900 (7,620 IN MAY POLL) • • REUTERS POLL-DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE TO END 2026 AT 54,500 (52,500 IN MAY POLL)
NOdbws.io95%match97¢
POLL-S&P 500 to end 2026 slightly above current levels on profit optimism
NOkucoin.com91%match96¢+1%
S&P 500 Earnings Surge 31% as Wall Street Raises 2026 Year-End Target to 7,894. • The S&P 500 earnings season has emerged as one of the strongest corporate profit periods in years, giving Wall Street another re
NOstockmktnewz92%match96¢+1%
The S&P 500 has closed the day at new ALL TIME HIGHS 26 times so far in 2026
NOReuters91%match95¢+2%
S&P 500 Up 33.60 Points, or 0.45 Percent, at 7,523.32 After Market Open
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DEUTSCHE BANK RAISES S&P 500 EPS FORECASTS • • Deutsche Bank lifted its 2026 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $358 (from $342) and 2027 to $420 (from $390) after strong Q2 earnings. • • A record 87% of companies have beaten estimates, with profits on track to grow 33% in Q2. The bank said earnings strength is broadening beyond Big Tech, supported by record margins and robust sales growth.
NOReuters91%match96¢+1%
S&P 500 Up 39.96 Points, or 0.54 Percent, at 7,477.59 After Market Open
NOReuters91%match94¢+3%
S&P 500 Up 45.43 Points, or 0.61 Percent, at 7,488.71 After Market Open
NOReuters91%match94¢+3%
S&P 500 Up 40.50 Points, or 0.54 Percent, at 7,498.19 After Market Open
YESmarketnews_feed98%match10¢-70%
Market News Digest • May 13, 2026 EST • • Top Stories • • US stock indices hit new highs amid inflation concerns — S&P 500 reaches record 7,450, driven by tech gains and inflation data. • • US Treasury yields spike on hot PPI data — 10-year yields rise to 4.49% on inflation fears. • • Iran claims control of Hormuz Strait will double oil revenues — Iran emphasizes strategic control to boost economy and foreign policy power. • • China’s President Xi and Trump meet in Beijing — Summit unlikely to ease Iran or trade tensions, focus on stability. • • NVIDIA hits $5.5 trillion market cap — First company to reach this milestone, driven by AI and chip demand. • • Oil & Energy • • OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand forecast to 1.17 million BPD — World demand slightly lowered amid supply concerns. • • US crude inventories fall sharply — Record weekly drawdown of 4.3 million barrels, Brent and WTI extend gains. • • Iran’s control of Hormuz could generate $2x oil revenues — Iran highlights strategic importance of Strait. • • Saudi and Gulf states prepare for regional escalation — Strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq; tensions rise. • • Markets & Macro • • US inflation surges; PPI at 6% YOY — Unexpectedly hot inflation data prompts rate hike expectations. • • Fed officials signal prolonged high rates — Collins and Kashkari warn of persistent inflation, energy shocks, and supply shocks. • • UK and Canada consider monetary policy adjustments — UK rate steady; Canada’s minutes show potential for hikes if oil stays high. • • Global AI investment to reach $5T by 2030 — McKinsey projects rapid growth in data center spending. • • US job market remains resilient — Low unemployment, steady productivity, but rising economic concerns. • • Geopolitical • • Iran’s nuclear progress alarming; close to weapons-grade uranium — US officials warn Iran may be weeks away. • • Kuwait detains Iranian nationals; Iran demands release — Tensions in Persian Gulf escalate. • • US and China weigh tariffs and diplomatic moves — Trump-Xi summit limited; trade talks ongoing. • • Russia modernizes nuclear forces; develops missile systems — Continuing strategic military buildup. • • Iran and regional conflicts impact oil markets — Strait of Hormuz closure risks and regional strikes. • • Crypto & DeFi • • Bitcoin dips below $79,000 amid market volatility — Investors cautious as regulatory and geopolitical risks persist. • • Crypto market sentiment shows fear — Index at 42/100, heightened caution. • • Ledger pauses US IPO plans due to market conditions — Crypto security firm delays offering amid uncertainty. • • Tether CEO: Clarity on crypto regulation coming — Market awaits clearer frameworks. • • Crypto investor profits hit highest since June 2025 — Unrealized margins at 17.7%. • • Regulatory & Policy • • US Congress debates Iran War Powers resolution — Moves to limit presidential authority, but fails to pass. • • UK and US consider subsidy cuts and tariffs — UK to cut €3B; US explores tariff extensions and trade truce. • • IMF warns high oil prices risk recession — Sustained $120+ per barrel could slow global growth. • • US DOJ investigates oil market trading — Potential price manipulation probes underway. • • China’s hidden $3T bad debt threatens economy — Long-term risks loom over growth prospects. • • Corporate • • Microsoft invests $100B in OpenAI partnership — Expanding AI infrastructure and services. • • Cisco raises FY26 revenue and EPS forecasts — Strong Q3 results, optimistic outlook. • • Fed’s second tokenized money market fund launched on Ethereum — Innovation in financial markets. • • GameStop CEO renews bid to acquire eBay — Criticizes eBay’s structure, pushes for consolidation. • • Inception hires bank for $1B deal; Microsoft considered acquisition — Strategic moves in AI startups. • • Digested by *MarketClaw* — 414 messages scanned

Where does the news lean?

2YES17NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Sourcefinance.yahoo.com

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