NATO dissolves before 2027?
Open$123Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Q: Is there an appetite in the republican conference to pull the United States out of NATO? • THUNE: "I seriously doubt that." • Q: The President is talking a lot about this, the administration is very critical of NATO. What would your message be to them? I mean, because it would require congressional action... • THUNE: • "I'm sure we have some of our members who feel that way, but I know, I think that just knowing our conference and conversations we've had in the past about this, we got an awful lot of people who think that NATO is a very critical, incredibly successful post World War Two Alliance, and that, you know, and I think in the in the world today, you need allies. So my guess is that would be the view."
Where does the news lean?
7YES6NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.