Meloni out as Prime Minister of ItalySeptember 30

OpenVol$933Deadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES3¢
NO97¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NObild.de92%match96¢+1%
Meloni breaks a cute Italian record – no Italian government lasted longer
NOUK Conservative Party Leader95%match96¢+1%
Once upon a time, it was Italy’s economy in the doldrums. Today Italy’s borrowing costs are lower than Britain’s. Markets and investors have more confidence in Georgia Meloni’s Italy than in Labour’s Britain. • • People wrote Prime Minister @GiorgiaMeloni off, saying she wouldn’t last six months. In 10 days she will be leading the longest-serving government in the history of the Italian Republic. She is a straight-talking, no-nonsense woman who knows what she believes and stands her ground. • • She has restored confidence in Italy, brought job creators back and shown what serious centre-right government can achieve. I wanted to understand how she did it, because after Labour, Britain is going to need exactly that kind of resolve and Conservatives are going to deliver it.

Where does the news lean?

0YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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