Meloni out as Prime Minister of ItalyDecember 31
Open$30Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 6% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES6¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
[UPDATE] Meloni wins political gamble over electoral reform (first reported at 2026-10-08T04:00:26Z)
Italy: Meloni wins first vote of confidence on new electoral law
Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni said he intends to stay in office until the end of the legislative term. Some media outlets have reported that Meloni, whose coalition is losing support to a new far-right movement led by former army general Roberto Vanacci, may push for early elections.
NOReuters95%match93¢+1%
Italy’s PM Meloni: I Want to Remain in Power Until the End of the Legislature
In a feat that strengthens her position as she prepares to launch her campaign for the 2027 parliamentary elections, Crises and divisions have toppled 68 Italian governments since World War II, and Meloni makes history with 1,413 days in power, surpassing Silvio Berlusconi by one day.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Friday celebrated her hard-right government becoming the longest-lasting in Italy's postwar history with a rally in the southern port of Bari, as she gears up for elections next year. • •
Live: Meloni marks milestone as her government becomes longest-serving in history, surpassing Berlusconi's record
Italian Prime Minister Meloni, who has set a new post-war record for the longest tenure, expresses gratitude to the nation, emphasizing stability by stating, "All the longest-serving prime ministers have been center-right."
[UPDATE] Italy weighs the results as Giorgia Meloni’s government sets a longevity record (first reported at 2026-09-03T04:03:14Z)
Italy's Meloni government becomes the longest-serving post-war administration; "realistic far-right" is key to stability
Italy weighs the results as Giorgia Meloni's government sets a longevity record
Meloni breaks a cute Italian record – no Italian government lasted longer
Once upon a time, it was Italy’s economy in the doldrums. Today Italy’s borrowing costs are lower than Britain’s. Markets and investors have more confidence in Georgia Meloni’s Italy than in Labour’s Britain. • • People wrote Prime Minister @GiorgiaMeloni off, saying she wouldn’t last six months. In 10 days she will be leading the longest-serving government in the history of the Italian Republic. She is a straight-talking, no-nonsense woman who knows what she believes and stands her ground. • • She has restored confidence in Italy, brought job creators back and shown what serious centre-right government can achieve. I wanted to understand how she did it, because after Labour, Britain is going to need exactly that kind of resolve and Conservatives are going to deliver it.
Where does the news lean?
0YES31NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
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See all outcomes for Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.