Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil presidentOctober 15
ResolvedOutcome: No$63Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
33 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Brazilians react to Bolsonaro's shock lead over President Lula • • Brazilians in Sao Paulo share a mix of views after right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro -- son of former president Jair Bolsonaro -- pulled off a surprise first-place finish in the first round election, beating incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Prediction Markets : Polymarket Beat Traditional Polls in the Brazilian Election. • Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the opening round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, an ordering that several late national polls had not projected and that the prediction market Polymarket had priced for weeks. The split between survey... Read More
Brazil: Right-wing Flavio leads in presidential election; heads to runoff against Lula.
Flávio Bolsonaro Surges Past Lula, Setting Up a Bitter Brazil Election Runoff - WSJ
Bolsonaro's eldest son defies pre-election predictions to take the lead, surpassing incumbent Lula Bolsonaro; Brazil's presidential election heads to a runoff.
Brazil's presidential election is officially heading to a runoff with right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro holding a slight lead over incumbent President Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro edges past Lula as nail-biter Brazil vote goes to a run-off
Bolsonaro leads Lula in vote as Brazil advances to a runoff presidential election
Brazilian senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the far-right former leader Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Sunday's election, which will go to a run-off in three weeks.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula as Brazil heads to a runoff
Bolsonaro leads Lula as nail-biter Brazil vote goes to a run-off
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro have advanced to the second round of Brazil's presidential election, according to data from Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court (which serves as the Central Electoral Commission). After nearly 99% of the ballots were processed, Mr. Bolsonaro received 47.28%, while Lula da Silva received 44.87%. The second round will be held on October 25. Voting is being organized because neither candidate received more than 50%. Incumbent President Lula da Silva represents the center-left Workers' Party. If he wins, he will remain in office for a fourth term. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, represents the Liberal Party. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Brazil election heads to a runoff with Bolsonaro leading Lula: official
Brazil: Al-Mayadeen correspondent: Flavio Bolsonaro leads with 47.9% compared to 44% for Lula da Silva after 91% of the votes have been counted
With 90.14% of the votes counted, Flavio Bolsonaro has won 48.05% of the votes and Lula has won 43.96%.
Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro far ahead of Lula after more than 60% of the votes have been counted
Bolsonaro still leading in Brazil's election With 47.26% of votes counted in Brazil's presidential election, Flavio Bolsonaro is leading with 50.20% of the vote, while Lula da Silva has won 41.63% of the vote Get the latest news:
Site | Ita | Yes | Rubica | Soroush Plus @snntv
Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro is far ahead of Lula after more than 60% of the ballots have been counted
Bolsonaro leads Lula with results from 60% of Brazil ballot boxes
Brazil: Al-Mayadeen correspondent: Flavio Bolsonaro leads with 49.5% compared to 42.2% for Lula da Silva after 64% of the votes have been counted
NOReuters94%match75¢+33%
Flavio Bolsonaro Has 49.58% of the Vote in Brazil Presidential Election, Lula 42.25% with 64.81% of Ballots Counted
Brazilian right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is leading President Lula da Silva after 20% of the votes have been counted.
NOReuters94%match72¢+39%
Flavio Bolsonaro Has 50.74% of the Vote in Brazil Presidential Election, Lula 41.14% with 31.9% of Ballots Counted
Reuters: Initial results from the Brazilian presidential election show Senator Flavio Bolsonaro leading President Lula da Silva.
#Breaking | Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is leading President Lula da Silva after more than 10% of the votes in the Brazilian election have been counted.
TASS: FLAVIO BOLSONARU GETS 50.96% OF VOTES IN BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AFTER 10.08% OF PROTOCOLS HAVE BEEN PROCESSED; LULA DA SILVA HAS 40.78% - ELECTION COMMISSION
Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is ahead of President Lula da Silva after more than 10% of the votes in Brazil's election have been counted.
#Breaking | Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is leading President Lula da Silva after more than 10% of the votes in the Brazilian elections have been counted.
Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is ahead of President Lula da Silva after more than 9% of the votes in Brazil's election have been counted.
Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is ahead of President Lula da Silva after more than 8% of the votes in Brazil's election have been counted.
Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is ahead of President Lula da Silva after more than 5% of the votes in Brazil's election have been counted.
#Breaking | Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is leading President Lula da Silva after more than 5% of the votes in the Brazilian elections have been counted
Early results in Brazil’s presidential election show Bolsonaro leading incumbent Lula, 49.2% to 42.2%
Where does the news lean?
5YES74NO58neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and October 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values.
Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing before October 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.
If no hourly odds values have been published for both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro between market creation and October 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No".
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/brazil-president-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.