Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15? Odds fell to 45% on Oct 4, 2026

OpenMove

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15? On , the market’s odds fell from 53¢ to 45¢ (-8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from bbc.co.uk.

How did the odds move?

At match53¢
+5m53¢
+30m47.5¢
+1h45¢
1h move-8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralbbc.co.uk95%match
What to know about Brazil's election pitting Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 53% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES53¢
NO47¢

Vol$7K

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Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.