Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Open$195Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Kim Jong Un pays respects at Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on the 32nd anniversary of Kim Il-sung's death (Comprehensive Report 2)
Kim Jong Un attends a special forces combat demonstration in North Korea... Watch his reaction
"Pyongyang will always stand by Moscow": Kim Jong Un promises North Korea's "unwavering" support for Russia
North Korea reappoints Kim Jong-un as supreme leader; leadership undergoes generational change.
Kim Jong Un has won North Korea's parliamentary elections with 99.93% of the vote.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter visited the country's leading defense enterprise, inspected the production of a new pistol, and tested it, KCNA reports.
North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un was seen test-firing handguns. — KCNA
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was seen test-firing handguns during a visit to a munitions factory, according to footage released by state media.
NONews99%match93¢+3%
Kim Jong Un watches cruise missile tests with daughter — and likely heir to regime
NOcgtneurope98%match93¢+3%
DPRK leader Kim Jong Un, accompanied by his daughter, oversaw the test launch of strategic cruise missiles from a new 5,000-ton naval destroyer. • • The test involved missiles that flew for nearly three hours along a flight path over the sea before hitting island targets, according to the Korean Central News Agency. • • #dprk #kimjongun #missiles
Where does the news lean?
1YES13NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.