Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$4.6Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match59¢+69%
Will Kahameni be out as supreme leader of Iran by the end of 2026? Polymarket odds surged to past 60 percent, as content grows and potential for Israeli or US strikes mount.
What do you think? [Quoting @Polymarket]
> BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader now projected to lose power this year, as he threatens U.S. troops in the region. The odds have surged past 60%.
YESPolymarket98%match61¢+64%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader now projected to lose power this year, as he threatens U.S. troops in the region. The odds have surged past 60%.
YESOSINTdefender99%match60¢+67%
Chances on Polymarket’s betting market that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be out as Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of the year are continuing to explode, with trader’s predictions currently sitting at 62% and likely to rise as anti-government protests continue across Iran.
YESOSINTdefender99%match61¢+64%
Chances on Polymarket’s betting market that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 have skyrocketed in the last 24 hours, as anti-government protests across the country have exploded, with chances currently sitting at 20% and rising.
NOReuters98%match41¢-100%
Iran's Supreme Leader to give speech about protests shortly, state TV says
YESPolymarket99%match60¢+67%
JUST IN: Iran’s Supreme Leader projected to be overthrown, as odds hit record 60% overnight.
YESPolymarket99%match60¢+67%
JUST IN: Iran’s Supreme Leader projected to be overthrown, as odds hit record 60% overnight.
YESOSINTdefender99%match52¢+92%
As ongoing nationwide anti-government demonstrations across Iran continue to grow, the chances on Polymarket that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be out as Supreme Leader of Iran have skyrocketed, with traders predicting that there is a 56% chance that Khamenei will be out by the end…
YESPolymarket99%match56¢+79%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader is projected to be removed from power. 55% chance he's dethroned this year.
Where does the news lean?
14YES3NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.