Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Open$356Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO86¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Erdogan: Israel is trying to reignite the war, but we are monitoring the situation with cautious optimism.
Interesting allegation by Ynet: • • “Israeli officials who favor rapprochement believe Israel should already be considering steps to repair relations with Turkey. • • One such official said it is a clear Israeli interest, adding that Turkish representatives had explored the possibility of reconciliation with Israel but were turned away.” • •
YESAl Jazeera English99%match13¢+8%
Turkiye closely monitoring Israel’s regional manoeuvres in the Eastern Mediterranean as tensions widen.
Where does the news lean?
9YES13NO24neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.