Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Open$15Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 92% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES92¢
NO9¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Results of a poll published by the Maariv newspaper: Likud drops to 20 Knesset seats, its lowest level since June 2025, while the Yesh Atid party leads. The opposition maintains the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
#Breaking | Poll: Likud drops to 20 Knesset seats, its lowest level since June 2025, and the Yesh Atid party leads, while the opposition maintains the 61-seat majority needed to form a government (Maariv)
Where does the news lean?
2YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).