Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Open$28Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 93% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES93¢
NO7¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
With one month to go until the Israeli general election, the opposition led by Netanyahu's political rivals is gaining momentum. Opinion polls predict a significant decrease in the number of seats the ruling party will win. However, Netanyahu is skilled at coalition negotiations, and it is said that even if he loses the position of the largest party, he may still be able to form a government.
Israeli Channel 12 poll: Opposition would win 54 seats compared to 50 for Netanyahu's bloc if elections were held today Neither bloc has the 61-seat majority needed to form the next government Gadi Eisenkot's Yesh Atid party leads with 23 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in preferences for prime minister, 41% to 38% Arab parties would win 12 seats, divided between the Joint List with 7 seats and the United Arab List with 5 seats The poll comes weeks before the Israeli general elections scheduled for October 27
#Breaking | A poll shows Netanyahu's Likud party falling to 19 seats in the Knesset, its lowest level since May 2025 (Maariv)
Results of a poll published by the Maariv newspaper: Likud drops to 20 Knesset seats, its lowest level since June 2025, while the Yesh Atid party leads. The opposition maintains the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
#Breaking | Poll: Likud drops to 20 Knesset seats, its lowest level since June 2025, and the Yesh Atid party leads, while the opposition maintains the 61-seat majority needed to form a government (Maariv)
Where does the news lean?
28YES0NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 55% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).