Iran Nuke before 2027?
Open$1.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Trump: "Military conclusion may be necessary... Iran will cease to exist"
.@SecRubio on Iran: "For these people to ever get nuclear weapons would be crazy. Look what they're willing to do with the weapons they have now. They hit embassies, they target hotels... Imagine if these radical lunatics had a nuclear weapon to threaten the world with."
Rubio: Action against Iran was necessary because it was close to acquiring a nuclear weapon.
NATO Secretary General: Our position is clear: we will not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.
NATO Secretary General: We have been clear that we will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons.
Iran confirms there are talks
NOFinancialJuice98%match87¢+9%
Trump: Iran wants to make a deal. It would be foolish if they didn't.
NOunusual_whales98%match86¢+10%
Iran says it could dilute enriched uranium if all sanctions are lifted, per Reuters
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match17¢-71%
Iran is rapidly restoring missile launch sites and nuclear facilities destroyed or damaged in the 12 day war-NYT
NOFirst Squawk98%match82¢+16%
Trump: Iran looks like they want to make a deal very badly as they should.
NOPolymarket98%match82¢+16%
[Replying to @DeItaone] @DeItaone 48% chance Iran agrees to a nuclear deal this year. > TRUMP: NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN
YESFinancialJuice98%match12¢-58%
Iran is at work on missile and nuclear sites, satellite images show - NYT
YESFirst Squawk98%match15¢-67%
He said Iran has reached an advanced stage in its nuclear program. “We have reached the edge of power in the nuclear field, and there is no unknown issue left for us,” he said.
Where does the news lean?
7YES16NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".