Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of BahrainDecember 31
Open$113Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, may God protect him, attended the joint exercise "Shield of Bahrain" with the participation of the armed forces of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
His Majesty the King receives the family of the late writer and poet Ali Abdullah Khalifa.
His Majesty the King receives the family of the late writer and poet Ali Abdullah Khalifa.
His Majesty the King receives the family of the late writer and poet Ali Abdullah Khalifa.
Where does the news lean?
0YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.