Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custodyDecember 31
Open$30Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Cuban leader Raul Castro makes a public appearance after a long absence during a security event in Havana. Al Arabiya Weekend
Cuba Today, September 7, 2026 -The leader of the Cuban Revolution, Raúl Castro Ruz, leads the ceremony commemorating the 65th anniversary of the integration of Personal Security. -Work collectives from across the country exchange views on the economic and social transformations taking place in Cuba. -Cuba and Brazil strengthen their cooperation in health matters, as part of the bilateral ties between the two nations. #Cuba #RaúlCastro #Brazil #Health #teleSUR #Sep7
Army General and former Cuban President Raúl Castro appeared alongside President Miguel Díaz-Canel this Saturday at the political and cultural event commemorating the "65th anniversary of the integration of personal security." At the event, Raúl Castro paid tribute to the 32 Cubans who died in Venezuela in the line of duty on January 3rd in Caracas, during the U.S. operation that resulted in the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
US-indicted Cuban leader Raul Castro received a standing ovation as he appeared in public for the first time in months Thursday, attending an event in Havana to mark the centenary of his brother Fidel's birth. •
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.