Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 6% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .
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3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
US-indicted Cuban leader Raul Castro received a standing ovation as he appeared in public for the first time in months Thursday, attending an event in Havana to mark the centenary of his brother Fidel's birth. •
Cuba: Raul Castro, indicted in May by the US justice system, reappears in public during a tribute to his brother Fidel
#Mexico: US charges against Raúl Castro condemned. Mexican organizations in solidarity with Cuba denounced the US charges against Army General Raúl Castro as political harassment. They warned that it is a dangerous escalation and an attempt to attack the Cuban Revolution. Do you think this will escalate? #Cuba #USA #teleSUR
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.